The Failure of the Afghan Peace Process and the Fall of Kabul: Implications for Afghanistan and Pakistan

Abstract

Unintended consequences in international relations may be tracked in three ways:
Irrational policies that harm a state's interests owing to diplomatic brinkmanship.
Second, tense relationships (spiraling out of control) have their own logic regardless of
the best interests of those involved. Third, the outcome was unanticipated or against
one's self-interests. By evacuating American and NATO troops from Afghanistan, the
Taliban escalated their activities, resulting in Kabul's collapse. Obama fought Taliban
fighters through military operations and drone strikes. The Afghan peace process,
which failed and led to the withdrawal of American-led NATO troops under Biden,
shows that this Afghan territory is a "graveyard of empires." This brinkmanship game
has had little effect on the sole superpower and its allies, but Afghanistan and Pakistan
may suffer from unanticipated consequences. This article concerns the Afghan peace
process, Pakistan's role, and post-Taliban Afghanistan. Similarly, it examines the
unintended consequences of the Afghan peace process's failure and Kabul's fall to the
Taliban for Afghanistan and Pakistan. Using qualitative research interviews, this article
explores Pakistan's various action options in Afghanistan.